The Ascent of Money: A Financial History of the World

Ferguson begins with a quick review of the topics the book covered, in chronological order. He then states that economics that have combined all the financial institutions have fared better than those that have not because the combination tends to allocate resources better. He reiterates what he said in the Introduction: that financial innovation has been as important to civilization throughout history as technological or other innovation.

However, the ascent of money “has not been, and can never be, a smooth one” (342). Even with the sophistication we have today, this is unavoidable. Ferguson gives three reasons for it. First, the future is uncertain to such a degree that we cannot calculate the probability of something with perfect accuracy. Second, human behavior is not rational and is subject to biases. As such, the new area of behavioral finance may be promising in helping to determine how people’s behavior affects the way markets work. Third, markets have a Darwinian nature that can be compared to the theory of evolution. One way this is manifested is in the number of failed firms. Ferguson states that an average of 10% fail every year, and as high as 20% in a bad year.